Raise big, raise small or fold

You hold K♠ 9♦ in Ultimate Texas Hold'em, and the flop is still face down. Do you bet 4× the Ante now, or check and keep the 2× bet on the flop for later?

The same two cards and the same moment, three moves; the move worth the most is in bold. Each figure is the average result of the whole hand in Antes, with the Ante, the Blind and the Play bet together, and a minus means money lost on average.

Leoformer dealer · rules and maths

The costly habit I saw most at this table was not a wild raise. It was the player who checked two cards worth the 4× bet, meaning to bet on the flop, and found only a 2× bet waiting there.

You get one Play bet in a hand, and three places to make it. Each place comes once, and each one offers a smaller bet than the one before.

Three points, and one Play bet per hand

To check is to place no Play bet yet and stay in the hand. Before the flop you can check or bet three or four times the Ante on the Play spot; on the flop, if there is no Play bet yet, you can check or bet twice the Ante; and on the river — once the last two community cards, the turn and the river, are dealt together — if there is still no Play bet, you bet once the Ante or fold.

1. Before the flop3× or 4×a Play bet of $30 or $40 on an example $10 Ante
2. On the flop2×a Play bet of $20, only if there is no Play bet yet
3. On the river1× or folda Play bet of $10, or the Ante and the Blind given up

The Play bet shrinks from point to point, and the Ante and the Blind stay the same. The $10 is an example bet, not a table minimum and not a suggested bet. Amounts are in Canadian dollars.

Under the rules for B.C. casinos, once a player has made the Play bet, that player cannot bet again and cannot change the bet.

A guide for two rooms in Ontario puts the same thing from the other side: the earlier you bet, the more you can bet, and you do not have to fold until you have seen all of the community cards.

Each row is one place the Play bet can go down; the last row is a hand with no raise.

What a decision is worth

A decision here is worth what the whole hand pays back on average after that decision, in Antes, with everything still to come counted: every card not yet turned over and every two-card hand the dealer can hold. Where a later decision is still to be made, the count makes it the way that costs least.

1. On the river990 dealer handsEvery two-card hand the dealer can hold, against your seven cards.
2. On the flop1,081 turns and riversEvery pair of cards still to come, each against the 990 dealer hands it leaves, with the river decision made the way that costs least.
3. Before the flop169 kinds of two cardsA table worked out once for every kind of two-card hand: every board against every dealer hand, with every later decision made the way that costs least.

Each point is counted exactly, without sampling: the river from the dealer's hands alone, the flop from every turn and river, and the start of the hand from a table worked out once for every kind of two cards.

No document we could read prints which move costs least on every hand, so the figures on this page are our own count. A figure above zero is the average for that one starting hand and not a promise about the hand in front of you: the Play bet can be lost along with the Ante and the Blind, and over every hand dealt the game keeps its edge. What the whole game costs is lesson 9.3.

1. Before the flop

   • Bet 4×+0.371
   • Check+0.116

2. On the flop, after a check

   • Bet 2×−0.954
   • Check−0.861

3. On the river, after two checks

   • Bet 1×−1.890
   • Fold−2.000

One hand followed past every point where it could have raised; at each point the move worth more is in bold. The figures before the flop are averaged over every board; the figures on the flop and the river are for this one board. A check before the flop keeps the hand alive, and every later point offers a smaller Play bet than the one passed.

Before the flop: 4× or check, for every two cards

Before the flop there are only 169 kinds of two-card hand, once suits that play the same are counted together, and the count has a figure for every one of them. The 3× bet is never worth the most of the three moves: where a raise is worth making, 4× is worth more, and where it is not, checking is.

• Bet 4×
• Check
• •The list for the 4× bet and the exact count part ways
• T a ten

Read a hand by its two ranks: the cell above the diagonal is the two cards in one suit, the cell below it is the two cards in different suits, and the diagonal is a pair. The 4× bet is worth more for 500 of the 1,326 two-card hands.

A player's guide for Ontario prints a list of the hands to bet 4× with, under its own heading.

The lines of the list as printed. The list and the exact count part ways only on hands led by a jack.

The list has two lines for a jack with a card of a different suit and none for a jack with a card of the same suit, and we read it as printed. By our count over every card still to come, a jack with an eight or better of the same suit is worth the 4× bet, and a jack with an eight or a nine of a different suit is not; those are the cells marked in the grid.

On the flop: 2× or check

After a check before the flop, three community cards are turned over, and the choice is a Play bet of twice the Ante or another check. The same player's guide prints a second list for this point, under its own heading.

That flop list does not ask for one of your own cards, and we read it as printed: three of a kind lying on the flop by itself counts. By our count the 2× bet is then worth more with an ace or a king in hand, never with a ten or lower as the higher card, and with a queen or a jack it depends on the cards.

Two flops, each counted over every turn, river and dealer hand. On the first, one of your cards makes a pair and no line of the flop list names the hand; on the second, four hearts make the flush draw the list names. The move worth more on each flop is in bold.

Where the flop list says nothing, our count still shows a pattern. When one of your own cards pairs a card on the flop, as on the first flop, the 2× bet is worth more on almost every flop. A pair lying on the flop by itself, or no pair and no flush draw at all, is almost always worth a check. A flush draw goes either way: on the second flop, the check is worth more.

On the river: 1× or fold

If there is still no Play bet when the last two community cards are turned, the choice is a bet equal to the Ante or a fold, and a fold gives up the Ante and the Blind together. The guide's third list covers this point.

We read the first river line as: one of your two cards has to be part of the pair or better itself, not only a card beside it. Folding is always worth exactly −2.000 Ante, the two bets given up, so the 1× bet is worth more whenever the hand, counted over the 990 hands the dealer can hold, loses less than that on average.

Two rivers, each counted over every dealer hand. On the first, a king in hand pairs a king on the board; on the second, nothing in hand pairs anything. The move worth more on each river is in bold.

Where the river list says nothing, our count shows a pattern too. With no pair anywhere and a nine or lower as your higher card, as on the second river, a fold is almost always worth more. When the board pairs by itself, a king or a queen in your hand usually makes the 1× bet worth more; with a jack or lower it depends on the cards.

Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks

Raising more often is not the same as playing better; it is a bigger bet. A 4× raise puts four more Antes on one hand, so the limit you set before you sat down has to have room for it. If a 4× bet would not fit that limit, the Ante at that table is too big for it.

Decide the money and the time for the session before the first hand, and stop when either one runs out. A hand that went badly is not a reason to bet bigger on the next one: putting more down to get a loss back is chasing, and lesson 10.3, Chasing losses, is about exactly that.

The lesson on one card

That is the lesson. Here it is on one card: print it, or keep it on your phone.

Practice: when to bet big

Level 1 deals two cards before the flop: bet 4×, bet 3× or check. Level 2 turns the flop for two cards that checked: bet 2× or check. Level 3 shows the whole board for two cards that checked twice: bet 1× or fold.

Nothing is bet here, and no hand is played out: each hand stops at the moment you choose, and the review shows what every move was worth.

Check yourself

Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks

Three quick ones. Pick an answer, then check it. No timer, no points: just whether it stuck.

Back to the question we opened with. With K♠ 9♦ before the flop, bet 4×: checking gives up 0.255 of an Ante each time, which on an example $10 Ante is $2.55.

Where to go next, and further reading

19+ (18+ in AB, MB, QC) · Play responsibly · the helplines are further up this page

Further reading

• Rules of Play for Table Games — Poker · BCLCThe B.C. rules for Ultimate Texas Hold’em: when you may raise and by how much, the pair the dealer needs, and the Blind and Trips pay tables.
• Game rules: Ultimate Texas Hold’em Poker · Loto-QuébecQuébec’s rules, with the Three of a Kind or More side bet and its own pay table.
• Ultimate Texas Hold’em · OLG PlaySmartThe game against the dealer, and the hands PlaySmart lists for each betting round: four times the Ante before the flop, twice on the flop, call or fold on the river.

How it’s worked out