Atlassino Academy · Craps · Lesson 12 of 12

Hot shooters and dice setting

A shooter who has made four points in a row looks hot. The dice do not remember those four points, and the chance of a fifth is exactly the chance of the first.

About 16 minutes
Illustrated hosts: Maya and Leo
Last checked 3 October 2026

A shooter at the craps table has made four points in a row, and the rail is cheering. What is the chance this shooter makes a fifth?

The short answer

Exactly the chance of the first point: 67/165. The four points were made by the same two dice that will roll the fifth, and the dice keep no count. A long hand changes how loud the rail is and nothing about the next roll.

Chance of making another point: 40.6%, on every bar

No points made yet

1 point made

2 points made

3 points made

4 points made

The bar is the same length however many points the shooter has already made.

Leo turns two dice carefully in his fingers as if lining them up before a throw, while Maya, one eyebrow raised, holds an open hand toward the rubber-lined far wall of the craps table.

Maya looking down at an open notebook, pen in hand.

Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks

At almost every craps table, sooner or later, someone says a shooter is hot. The rail is right that something unusual is happening: hands with four points made are not common. The rail is wrong about what that means for the next roll.

The chance of another point

A hand belongs to one shooter. Making the point keeps the dice with the same shooter for a new come-out; a 7 before the point ends the hand and passes the dice on. On a come-out a 7, 11, 2, 3 or 12 settles the line bets without ending the hand, so the hand goes on until a point is set and then lost to a 7.

That makes every new point the same two questions. The first question is which of the six numbers becomes the point; the second is whether that number comes again before a 7.

The six possible points: how often each number becomes the point, and the chance the point comes again before a 7
The point	How often this number becomes the point	Chance the point comes again before a 7
4	3 in 24	1/3 33.3%
5	4 in 24	2/5 40.0%
6	5 in 24	5/11 45.5%
8	5 in 24	5/11 45.5%
9	4 in 24	2/5 40.0%
10	3 in 24	1/3 33.3%
Any point, all six rows together		67/165 40.6%

The middle column counts, out of all the ways two dice can roll a point number, the ways that roll this one. The bottom row weighs each chance by that count and adds the six rows. No column asks how many points the shooter has already made.

After four points, the same chance

The same thing shows in the dice: 100,000 simulated hands, rolled with fair dice under the table’s rules.

Simulated hands sorted by how many points each had made, and the share that went on to make another point
Points made so far in the hand	Hands that got this far	Of those, made another point	Share that made another point
0	100,000	40,469	40.5%
1	40,469	16,330	40.4%
2	16,330	6,656	40.8%
3	6,656	2,752	41.3%
4	2,752	1,121	40.7%
The exact chance, for every row			40.6%

After four points, a fifth came about as often as a first. Fewer hands reach the lower rows, so those shares wobble more, in either direction.

Long hands are rare, which is exactly why they are noticed. Each extra point multiplies the chance by the same 67/165 again, so the share of hands that get far shrinks quickly, and yet some hands always do: streaks are part of any random game, and nobody knows in advance whether one will continue.

At least 1 point in one hand

40.6% of hands

At least 2 points in one hand

16.5% of hands

At least 3 points in one hand

6.70% of hands

At least 4 points in one hand

2.72% of hands

At least 5 points in one hand

1.10% of hands

At least 6 points in one hand

0.448% of hands

Betting more on a shooter who is on a run, or less on one who is not, changes how much money is on the table and nothing about the dice.

Fifteen rolls, and the sixteenth

Length is the other thing the rail notices. An average hand lasts about 8.5 rolls, and a hand that is still going after fifteen rolls is something only 13.2% of hands manage. Below is one such hand, roll by roll.

15 rolls of one hand, and the hand is still going

5point set
6no decision
5point made
7natural
8point set
9no decision
2no decision
8point made
7natural
5point set
12no decision
8no decision
12no decision
11no decision
12no decision
Roll 16not rolled yet

Each box is one roll: the dice, their total and what the roll did to the hand. The last box is the sixteenth roll.

The sixteenth roll is thrown with the same two dice as the first. A 7 comes on 6 of the 36 ways two dice can land, which is 1/6, on the sixteenth roll exactly as on the first.

The 36 ways two dice can land, with the ways that make 7 marked
First die down the side, second die along the first row	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
2	3	4	5	6	7	8
3	4	5	6	7	8	9
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
5	6	7	8	9	10	11
6	7	8	9	10	11	12

The squares that make 7 are filled in. Fifteen rolls of history do not move a single square.

Leo smiling, explaining with an open hand.

Leoformer dealer · rules and maths

The longest hands I have seen at a craps table felt, to everyone on the rail, as though the table itself had changed. The table had not changed. The stickman pushed the same two dice back to the same shooter, and each roll had the same 6 ways to a 7 that the first roll had.

Setting the dice before the throw

Some shooters turn the two dice to a chosen face before every throw and hold the dice a particular way, in the belief that a practised throw can keep the 7 away. No operator or regulator document we could read writes about setting or controlling the dice at all, either for it or against it, so there is no rule book sentence to quote on the question.

What the rules ask of the throwDice meant to bounce off the far end of the table, so that the far wall, and not the hand, decides how the dice land.
What the game isA game of chance, with no skill required to play.

However the dice were held, every roll still lands on one of the 36 ways in the grid above, and a run of rolls has not changed the grid.

The Fire Bet: a price for a rare hand

In the rules BCLC publishes for its casinos, the Fire Bet is a side bet made before a new shooter’s first come-out and paid by how many different points that shooter makes before the hand ends; a point made twice counts once.

A payment written “for 1” counts the chip you put down inside the figure: 25 For 1 is the same payment as 24 to 1, with your own chip coming back as part of it.

The Fire Bet: what each number of different points pays, and how often a shooter makes exactly that many
Different points made by one shooter	Pays	The same payment, written “to 1”	How often a shooter makes exactly that many
4	25 For 1	24 to 1	about 1 in 114 shooters
5	250 For 1	249 to 1	about 1 in 610 shooters
6	1,000 For 1	999 to 1	about 1 in 6,156 shooters

The payment rises as the hand gets rarer. On average over many shooters, the house keeps 20.76% of the money put on the Fire Bet.

One other published Fire Bet table is worded “to 1” rather than “for 1”, so the chip is not counted inside its figures: that is a different table, not the same table in other words, and lesson 5.9 sets the two side by side.

Maya with a hand on her chest, speaking gently and seriously.

Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks

Money and time at craps. A long hand is the moment people put more out: a bigger chip on the line, odds behind it, a Fire Bet for the next shooter. Decide before you reach the table what the evening gets in money and in time, and keep to both while the rail is at its loudest.

A short hand that took the money is not a debt the next shooter will pay back. If you notice yourself staying for the hand that brings it back, that is the moment to step away from the rail, and the lines below are there for exactly that.

If it stops being fun

If gambling stops being entertainment, help is available. 19+ in most of Canada; 18+ in Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec. More on responsible gaming.

1-866-531-2600Ontario · ConnexOntario · 24 hours

1-800-461-0140Quebec · Jeu: aide et référence · 24 hours

1-888-795-6111British Columbia · Gambling Support BC · 24 hours

1-866-332-2322Alberta · Addiction Helpline (Recovery Alberta) · 24 hours

1-800-463-1554Manitoba · Problem Gambling Helpline · 24 hours

1-800-306-6789Saskatchewan · Problem Gambling Help Line · 24 hours

1-888-429-8167Nova Scotia · Mental Health and Addictions Crisis Line · 24 hours

1-800-461-1234New Brunswick · Gambling Information Line

1-855-255-4255Prince Edward Island · PEI Gambling Support Line · 24 hours

811Newfoundland and Labrador · Gambling Help Line · 24 hours

1-844-533-3030Yukon · Reach Out Support Line (CMHA Yukon)

If you are thinking about suicide, call or text 9-8-8

Practice: after a long hand

A shooter has made four points, a hand has run fifteen rolls, a table has gone cold, a stickman offers the Fire Bet. Each moment asks what the dice say next, and how sure anyone can be about it.

Nothing here is scored, and nothing is bet. The moments come one after another, in order, and each one shows the answer with the arithmetic behind it.

The practice table needs JavaScript. Here is one moment from it, with the answer.

The fifth point

One shooter’s hand so far

POINTS MADE4

ROLLS14

NEXT ROLLA new come-out

The same shooter keeps the dice for a new come-out. What is the chance this shooter goes on to make a fifth point?

More than 67/165: the shooter is on a run A run is something the rail sees and the dice do not. The two dice that roll the fifth point were never told about the first four.
67/165, the same as for the first point Before every point the shooter faces the same two questions: which number becomes the point, and whether that number comes again before a 7. Neither question asks how many points came before.
Less than 67/165: a run has to end A run ends when a 7 comes before the point, and a 7 comes on 6 of the 36 ways two dice land, early in a hand and late in a hand alike.

Put the six possible points together, each weighted by how often that number becomes the point, and the chance of making the point is 67/165. The same sum holds before the first point of a hand and before the fifth.

Two shooters, one 6

Two tables

TABLE ONEPoint 6 · no points made yet

TABLE TWOPoint 6 · 4 points made

Both shooters are waiting on a 6. Whose 6 is more likely to come before a 7?

The 6 at table one, because that shooter is fresh A fresh shooter rolls the same two dice as a tired one. Nothing about the shooter reaches the way the dice land.
Neither: 5/11 at both tables A 6 comes on 5 ways and a 7 on 6 at both tables, so the 6 comes first 5/11 of the time at both.
The 6 at table two, because that shooter is on a run Four points made earlier in the hand change nothing about the next roll of the dice, at either table.

Which shooter holds the dice changes nothing about how a pair of dice lands. A 6 against a 7 is 5 ways against 6, wherever the table is and whatever happened at it before.

The Fire Bet

Fire Bet table

FOUR DIFFERENT POINTS25 For 1

FIVE DIFFERENT POINTS250 For 1

SIX DIFFERENT POINTS1,000 For 1

What sets the size of the payment for six different points?

How rare such a hand is: about 1 in 6,156 shooters The payment follows the rarity of the hand. A repeated point counts once, and for nearly every shooter a 7 arrives long before six different points have come.
How often hot shooters turn up If six-point hands were common, a payment of that size would not be offered. Hands with four different points or more come along for about 1 in 94 shooters.
Goodwill towards the players The house keeps 20.76% of the money put on the Fire Bet, on average over many shooters.

A big figure on a side bet is the price of a rare hand, not a sign that the hand is near. The rarer the hand, the bigger the figure, and the house keeps its share all the same.

Every moment in the practice run is worked out the same way: from the ways two dice can land, and from nothing that happened earlier in the hand.

How the practice run works

Where the moments come from. Every hand in the practice run is rolled out by the same dice engine as the hands on this page, and every answer is worked out from the ways two dice land rather than written down by hand. Each wrong answer is one named mistake: reading a run as a reason for the next point, reading a run as a reason for a 7, or reading a cold table as a reason for anything.

One level, read through. The level has no squares to fill: it is a reference run, and it ends when the last moment has been read.

Your progress stays in this browser, and nothing is sent anywhere.

Where to go next, and further reading

Streaks The same question at the roulette wheel: how often a run of one colour turns up in an evening, and why the next spin does not care. Craps in Canada The rooms we list that have a craps table, and what each says about the game in its own words.

19+ (18+ in AB, MB, QC) · Play responsibly · the helplines are further up this page

How it’s worked out

Numbers, sources and hosts

Where this happens. Every table on this page is a live craps table in a room you can walk into. An electronic craps machine is a different thing, and nothing here is about one.

Numbers. Every chance on this page is an exact fraction worked out from the 36 ways two dice can land: the chance of making each point, the chance of another point in a hand, the share of hands that last a given number of rolls, and the chance of each number of different points for the Fire Bet. The Fire Bet payments are the cells of the rules BCLC publishes for its casinos, a published rule set and not a fact about any one room, and the share the house keeps is worked out from those payments and those chances. The simulated table rolls 100,000 hands with fair dice and a fixed seed, so the same table comes out on every build; the seed was fixed before the table was looked at, and the table is there to show the arithmetic in the dice, not to replace the arithmetic.

What is deliberately absent. No operator or regulator document we could read writes about setting or controlling the dice, for it or against it, so no document is quoted on that question here; the page rests on the arithmetic and on the rule of the throw. Research on the “hot hand” is left out on purpose: the classic study, by Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky in 1985, is about people shooting a basketball, and a 2018 re-analysis by Miller and Sanjurjo found a bias in its measure and argued that its conclusion reverses. Neither paper is about dice, and neither is used here as proof of anything. There is no price of a hand, an hour or an evening on this page: the come-out and the point step by step are lesson 5.2, the price of the pass line and the pace of a table are lesson 5.3, both published Fire Bet tables side by side are lesson 5.9, taking and throwing the dice is lesson 5.10, and the price of an evening is lesson 5.11.

Sources. Every claim on this page carries a button with the sentence it rests on, the publisher who wrote that sentence and the date we read it.

Hosts. Maya and Leo are illustrated characters. Their backstories, a former floor supervisor and a former dealer, are written for the course: neither is a real person, and neither speaks for any casino. The rules and numbers on this page come from the sources it cites, not from their experience.

No promise. Craps is played against the house. Knowing that a long hand changes nothing about the next roll keeps money away from a feeling; nothing on this page makes any bet cheaper, and nothing here says how a hand or an evening would end.

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